Year 2000 Problem: The Millennium Bug
Clive Gill · The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems · 1998
Despite the fact that the Year 2000 problem has been well publicized, there are still many companies who have not yet fully recognized its severity ... most companies are handling the Year 2000 project by solely utilizing in-house resources currently, only 10% of the companies are in full compliance. n Jan. 1, 2000, around the world, ople will celebrate the beginning of a new millennium. However, this first change of century in the electronic age will create a problem for many businesses, known as the Year 2000 (Y2K) problem or the millennium bug. The problem exists because many computers and computer chips will not be able to recognize the 21 st century. Many computer software programs were written when computer storage and memory were limited, and as such, they used only two digits to store the four-digit year. In these systems, Jan. 1, 2000 will be typically entered as 01/01/00. Many computers will neither accept a four-digit entry for the year 2000 nor will they discern whether the 00 entry refers to 2000 or 1900. The two-digit field is in the computer infrastructure, compilers and software. The failure to recognize the year 2000 will cause logic errors, data corruption and program failures. While early warnings from computer industry experts, going as far back as 1992, were dismissed by many with skepticism, most organizations now recognize the severity of the problem. News media in 1998 played a very important role in making people aware of this problem. With an immovable deadline, the time to fix the problem is short. But it is practically impossible to foresee and test all the problems the Y2K bug might create. If the Year 2000 problem is not resolved, its impact will be severe. Because of growing interdependency throughout the world, it will affect not only domestic businesses but also businesses abroad. PROGNOSIS It appears that most of the organizations in North America will be able to achieve Year 2000 Compliance on time for their most critical functions. But they may not be able to fulfill all their legal and statutory requirements. A software company in California was recently sued by its customers when it wanted to charge for a software upgrade to fix the Y2K bug. We may see litigation with customers, shareholders and suppliers, resulting from not fully resolving all the issues pertaining to Year 2000. The situation outside the U.S.A. will be worse because many countries have not fully grasped the intensity of the problem nor do they have the resources to fix it on time. As a result, we will see many business disruptions worldwide. ACTION PLAN Here is a step by step procedure to solve this problem: Step 1: Create awareness within your company about the potential impact the Y2K problem will have on the business. The more upper management understands and recognizes the problem, the more they will be willing to provide support. Step 2: Create a mission statement. For example, Secure Year 2000 Once the mission is accepted, a mandate can be given that all the date dependent products must have a Year 2000 Compliance Warranty. It is very important to define clearly the definition of the word Compliance, so that everyone has the same understanding. Step 3: Define the Y2K project as well as its goals for achieving Year 2000 Compliance. Indicate who should be entrusted with responsibilities and what should be expected from team members. In assigning responsibilities, make sure that the project manager is highly skilled and experienced. The project manager needs to know how to communicate well with people within the organization as well as with business partners. Step 4: Perform a legal audit of licenses and contracts for non-compliant items, and get legal counsel on what the organization's officers and directors need to do to fulfill legal and statutory duties. For example, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, in July 1998, approved stricter guidelines for U. …