SHORT-TERM RELIABILITY OF SLOPES UNDER STATIC AND SEISMIC CONDITIONS
Akira Asaoka, Dimitri Athanasiou-Grivas · Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board · 1981
A simplified probabilistic approach to the determination of the short-term (phi sub u = 0) reliability of clayey slopes under static and seismic conditions is presented. The uncertainties associated with (a) the undrained strength of soil and its spatial variation and (b) the analytic procedure used to assess the safety of the slope are considered, and probabilistic tools are introduced for their description and amelioration. The probability of the failure of a slope under static loading is first determined. The effect of an earthquake on the slope is introduced through an equivalent horizontal peak acceleration (deterministic), and the new probability of failure is obtained by using Bayes' theorem. Finally, the developed procedure is illustrated in an example, the results of which are presented and discussed. (Author)