Attack Methodology Analysis: Emerging Trends in Computer-Based Attack Methodologies and Their Applicability to Control System Networks
Bri Rolston · 2005
Threat characterization is a key component in evaluating the threat faced by control systems. Without a thorough understanding of the threat faced by critical infrastructure networks, adequate resources cannot be allocated or directed effectively to the defense of these systems. Traditional methods of threat analysis focus on identifying the capabilities and motivations of a specific attacker, assessing the value the adversary would place on targeted systems, and deploying defenses according to the threat posed by the potential adversary. Too many effective exploits and tools exist and are easily accessible to anyone with access to an Internet connection, minimal technical skills, and a significantly reduced motivational threshold to be able to narrow the field of potential adversaries effectively. Understanding how hackers evaluate new IT security research and incorporate significant new ideas into their own tools provides a means of anticipating how IT systems are most likely to be attacked in the future. This research, Attack Methodology Analysis (AMA), could supply pertinent information on how to detect and stop new types of attacks. Since the exploit methodologies and attack vectors developed in the general Information Technology (IT) arena can be converted for use against control system environments, assessing areas in which cutting edge exploit development and remediation techniques are occurring can provide significance intelligence for control system network exploitation, defense, and a means of assessing threat without identifying specific capabilities of individual opponents. Attack Methodology Analysis begins with the study of what exploit technology and attack methodologies are being developed in the Information Technology (IT) security research community within the black and white hat community. Once a solid understanding of the cutting edge security research is established, emerging trends in attack methodology can be identified and the gap between those threats and the defensive capabilities of control systems can be analyzed. The results of the gap analysis drive changes in the cyber security of critical infrastructure networks to close the gap between current exploits and existing defenses. The analysis also provides defenders with an idea of how threat technology is evolving and how defenses will need to be modified to address these emerging trends.