Decomposition of Network Traffic of Dialup Access into Trend and Periodic Components Based on Nonstationary Bayesian Model
Norikazu Ikoriia, Taketomi Shiniizu · 2003
A new mudel to derompm a ncrrurk rrnffic rime swes iuto i(5 romponen~n, such a rrmd, diu vffvct of daF in L rwk. and wivtions it, a day. is propowd. The logarithm of dadup wess rraffic at Hosei Unlvesirv. which wa, iwragcxl over an hour. is used w the tiurawk traffic 11111~ series. The idpa of the model IS uricmared from a nunstariuiiary Bnynian model thar dwompose a monthly tirue series into trend, seasondiry, and trading day cffrcrs in a xnouth. 121 In ow approach. rhe camponcnrs which appear 1 rhr model arc defined as fullaws rhpre arc mu tyyn of trcud component whrch arc smooth over aw~d days and severd hows. the rtTtrr of dap in a week i~ a pwidicity in a week; and rhe xion in a day is a pwdiriry in a Ray. \Ye conclwle rhar a mad4 of one wmhiiiiltwn of the ccmpoornrs is siiirahle for andnis, rhrough UUI ex-aluarmrt thnr uer ABIC for several combinat ions of rhc cumpmenrs