Title: FUZZY GENERALISATIONS AND BEST ESTIMATES OF TRUSTWORTHINESS: a step towards transforming research knowledge about learning into effective teaching practice
Michael Bassey · 2000
The problem of generalisation has long been a stumbling block for researchers in the social sciences. In terms of research into learning strategies, for example, teachers and policy-makers have wanted clear statements like, ‘do x in y circumstances and z will be the result’. But researchers have been unable to make such predictions because of the complexity of the notion of ‘y circumstances’. Putting it another way, there are too many uncontrolled variables in most social settings for straightforward statements like this to be made. Recently, and drawing on ideas from the field of fuzzy logic, I have recognised that it is possible to make predictive statements like, ‘do x in y circumstances and z may be the result’. I have called such statements ‘fuzzy generalisations’. The problem, of course, is that such statements embrace the idea that it will also be true that ‘do x in y circumstances and z may not be the result’. I believe this can be overcome by making a best estimate of trustworthiness (BET). This is a professional judgement (based on the experience and reading of the researcher), expressed in a fuzzy form like this: do x in y circumstances and z may be the case: the best estimate of trustworthiness is that this will be true in between p-q% of instances. Making such a BET takes the researcher beyond the empirical evidence arising in a research project and into the realm of professional tacit and explicit knowledge. Making a best estimate of trustworthiness demands that the researcher thinks about the empirical findings of a research project in terms of who may use it - and how useful it may be to them. It puts a particular focus onto the concept of ‘y circumstances’ and requires that this be the determinant of the population to whom the research applies. Thus a statement like ‘do x in primary school classes and z may be the result’ is likely to have a low BET (eg 10-20% of the children). But if the age and educational history of a class of primary children is included in the statement it may be possible to give a much higher BET. My claim is that this is an approach to transforming research knowledge into a form which can readily enter the professional discourse through which teachers enhance their craft knowledge of teaching and so improve the learning of their students.