Population-Distributed Personal Probabilities
James Dickey, Peter R. Freeman · Journal of the American Statistical Association · 1975
We use the Dirichlet distribution in a new application as a tractable model for the variability between personal prior probability vectors over a large population of persons. Given a common realized likelihood function, the resulting population distribution of coherent personal posterior probability vectors is analyzed and found to have mixed moments expressible as a one-dimensional integral. Implications for the study of the evolution of scientific knowledge are discussed.