Bayesian Analysis of Random Event Generator Data
W. H. Jefferys · 1990
Data from experiments that use random event generators are usually analyzed by classical (frequentist) statistical tests, which summarize the statistical significance of the test statistic as a p-value. However, classical statistical tests are frequently inappropriate to these data, and the resulting p-values can grossly overestimate the significance of the result. Bayesian analysis shows that a small p-value may not provide credible evidence that an anomalous phenomenon exists. An easily applied alternative methodology is described and applied to an example from the literature. Introduction In recent years a new type of experiment using a random event generator (REG) has become popular in parapsychological research (Schmidt, 1970; Jahn, Dunne, & Nelson, 1987). This methodology is a modern refinement of the VERITAC technology of Smith, Daglen, Hill, & Mott-Smith (1963), which itself embodies features of Tyrrell's (1936) experiments. The technique is based on an electronic device driv...