The Catch-Up Phenomenon
Peter Grünwald, Steven de Rooij, Tim van Erven · 2008
We consider inference based on a countable set of models (sets of probability distributions), focusing on two tasks: model selection and model averaging. In model selection tasks, the goal is to select the model that best explains the given data. In model averaging, the goal is to find the weighted combination of models that leads to the best prediction of future data from the same source.