Probability Based Optimal Collision Avoidance Maneuvers
Brad Kelly, Solomon De Picciotto · 2005
*† This paper presents a new technique to design a col lision avoidance maneuver when a conjunction analysis indicates that the probability of collision is above a certain threshold. This technique makes use of the Aerospace Corporation designed NLP2 algorithm to numerically design a minimal delta-V maneuver to reduce the probability of collision below the threshold of concern as well as optionally meet ing a miss distance constraint. In addition, the algorithm can consider uncertainties in the con juncting objects’ covariances, either individually or jointly, as part of the objective p robability. The algorithm is fast, robust, and highly tunable. This technique has been prototyped for analysis. Experimental results and conclusions about the algorithm and collision avoid ance in general are also given.