Problems in Parole Prediction: A Historical Analysis
Charles W. Dean, Thomas J. Duggan · Social Problems · 1968
A review of past efforts to predict parole outcome indicates that, although there have been some recent improvements in the methodology, there has been no appreciable increase in predictive power. Two related reasons for this are evident. First, the prevalent use of prison files as a data source limits the kind of research question which can be asked. Second, the non-theoretical nature of this research has prevented a systematic accumulation of knowledge relative to this problem. The success of future efforts depends on whether parole prediction research conforms to the basic requirements of scientific investigation which include utilizing theoretical guidelines and selecting variables on the basis of their theoretical relevance instead of on their availability in prison files.