Recidivism: The Fallacy of Prediction
C. Jack Friedman, Fredrica Mann · International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology · 1976
ACCURATE prediction of recidivism for juvenile offenders in correctional institutions has practical as well as theoretical significance. The informational base for such predictions draws upon a variety of sources including psychiatric, psychological, educational and vocational assessments; prior criminal record; progress in the institutional program; and organization and resources of the family. Implicit in procedures of evaluating court-adjudicated delinquents for discharge from correctional institutions is the assumption that this available information relates to recidivism. ’ This process, however, is reduced to a matter of human judgment. Designated staff members at correctional institutions for juvenile offenders are empowered to judge the degree to which a youth has been &dquo;rehabilitated&dquo;. Research efforts to develop valid and reliable recidivism prediction criteria on which to base such judgments have been controversial and frustrating.2.7 No standards