Study on the Qualitative Simulation-Based Customer Churn Prediction
Hu Wang, Weijian Li · 2009
According to the active service and future-oriented service of service-mining theory, as well as the theory of Kuiperspsila Qualitative Simulation, this paper puts forward a model of Qualitative Simulation that describes and predicts the changing process of customer churn. By applying causality graph, the factor system influencing customer churn is designed and concepts like decision variables, state variables and constraint of sequential causality are established. Further, the idea of using many times of Qualitative Simulation and random behavior extraction to instead of the one-off reasoning of QSIM is brought forward, based on which the predicted model of customer churn is projected. At the end, after the experimental simulation of the predicted model, it proves that model can well predict and explain the changing process of customer churn, which can provide qualitative reference for the enterprises on when to implement the right strategy.