Estimating Future Aircraft Position Uncertainty due to Pilot Maneuvers
Clay J. Robertson, Gilbert L. Crouse · 12th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference and 14th AIAA/ISSMO Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization Conference · 2012
Operation of unmanned aircraft in the United States’ National Airspace System is currently severely restricted, primarily due to the need to ensure adequate separation between manned and unmanned aircraft (UA). A particular problem in any conict avoidance algorithm is estimating where conicting trac is likely to be in the future. While most air trac spends a large percentage of its time in straight and level ight, maneuvers are still quite common and must be considered. Incorporating uncertainty in tracking algorithms is well established, but current methods primarily only consider uncertainty related to sensor errors and modeling errors. They do not consider the uncertainty of pilot decisions regarding maneuvers. The objective of this research has been to quantify the level of uncertainty in aircraft position due to pilot maneuvers and develop methods for incorporating that information into tracking and conict avoidance algorithms.