Modelling Uncertainty in the Game of Go
David H. Stern, Thore Graepel, David Mackay · 2004
Go is an ancient oriental game whose complexity has defeated at-tempts to automate it. We suggest using probability in a Bayesian sense to model the uncertainty arising from the vast complexity of the game tree. We present a simple conditional Markov ran-dom eld model for predicting the pointwise territory outcome of a game. The topology of the model re ects the spatial structure of the Go board. We describe a version of the Swendsen-Wang pro-cess for sampling from the model during learning and apply loopy belief propagation for rapid inference and prediction. The model is trained on several hundred records of professional games. Our experimental results indicate that the model successfully learns to predict territory despite its simplicity. 1