Linkage Between Pre-and Post-Conflict: Exploiting Information Integration & System Dynamics
Nazli Choucri, Stuart Madnick, Allen Moulton, Michael D. Siegel, Hongwei Zhu · 2005
In its Preface, The 9/11 Commission Report states: “We learned that the institutions charted with protecting...national security did not understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it” (2004: xvi). Given current realities and uncertainties “better preparedness” can be achieved by identifying, controlling and managing the elusive linkages & situational factors that fuel hostilities. This paper focuses on new opportunities and capabilities provided by anticipatory technologies that help understand, measure and model the complex dynamics shaping and precipitating conflict in specific settings worldwide. We introduce a research initiative focusing on linking pre-and post-conflict by drawing upon the power of system dynamics, augmented by new technologies for integrated information analysis, in conjunction with the development of conceptual and computational ontologies capturing the diversity, intensity, and dynamics of the conflict domain.