Subjective Probability and Normative Evaluations
Philip W. Blumstein · Social Forces · 1973
This article systematically examines the commonly observed relationship between the perceived likelihood of an actor/act combination and the moral evaluation of the act. It is hypothesized that a “good” person behaving immorally will be more negatively evaluated than a similarly behaving “bad” person, and that a bad person behaving morally will be more positively evaluated than a similarly behaving good person. Separate groups of subjects rated the moral worth of a variety of (1) actors, (2) acts, and (3) acts performed by actors, as well as (4) the likelihood of such actor/act combinations. The data provide support for the first hypothesis, but none for the second. A more parsimonious characterization of the data suggests that generally, subjective probability is positively related to the moral evaluation of an actor/act combination.