The Year 2000 Problem: A Defense Perspective
Betty Ann Olmstead · Defense Counsel Journal · 1998
You and your clients have heard about the dire things that will happen on January 1, 2000, but are they doing anything about it DIGITAL technology permeates all sectors of business and industry, and, according to the politicians, the information superhighway will build a bridge for entry into the new millennium. Under that bridge, however, may be a ticking time bomb that can literally set communities, business, and government back a hundred years. That time bomb, often called the virus or bug, resides in the very technology that allows us to work effectively and productively. Unlike other computer viruses created by hackers wanting to invade and wreak havoc with computer systems, the Year 2000 is the unintended legacy of old design compromises. Its destructiveness, however, is expected to spread like an unchecked disease, infecting billions of digital programs, products and services worldwide.(1) WHAT'S THE PROBLEM? Because most computers have not been programmed to distinguish between 1900 and 2000, the dawning of Year 2000 promises to confuse every sector of society that uses computers and microchips. One second past the stroke of midnight on January 1, 2000, the Year 2000 bug could infect anything that contains date-formatted digital technology, including mainframes, personal computers and products that run off hidden computer microchips. Some will produce erroneous results, while others will work sporadically and output random data.(2) Some will crash completely.(3) Given the global dependence on computers and microchips, the scope of the Year 2000 bug could be immense--scrambled databases leaving police departments unable to track known criminals: federal income tax bills based on 99 years of work: lapsed insurance policies created by erroneous insurance company records: passports issued in 1999 rejected as expired: enormous long-distance billings showing 100-year-long phone calls made at midnight, 01-01-2000; dairy products erroneous discarded by plant control systems that assume they are 100 years old; pension payments undelivered owing to miscalculations of eligibility; security systems that won't let you in your office because of a system error that can't process the year 2000.(4) Despite the magnitude of the problem, few people realize the potential for disaster. That may be because the problem itself appears deceptively simple. To many people, it's only a benign date problem that applies to very narrow applications. Unfortunately, however, the Year 2000 bug poses a serious problem that can affect everything with a computer chip in it, disrupting our personal and work lives. UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES The Year 2000 virus arises from computer and software designs dating back to the early days of mainframe computers and PCs. Back then, computer memory and hard-disk storage were very expensive, and it made economic sense to free up space by reducing a four-digit year code to two digits, assuming the first two digits of each year field to be 19. So calendar years were entered as two digits--for example, 72 and 81--and understood by the computer to be preceded by 19. So the computer read 72 as 1972 and 81 as 1981. When this practice began, no one thought the computer systems in use then would be operating into the 2000.(5) As usage increased, however, companies elected to expand, instead of replace, mainframe applications. Expansion was often developed by third parties, with few, if any, records left noting the changes. And in the interest of economy, software updates were designed to be compatible with earlier versions, instead of changed to recognize four-digit year codes. Eventually, experts began to warn of a problem coming in 2000 when computers would not recognize the two-digit 00 year code as 2000. This meant that whenever 00 would be used to denote the year 2000, legacy mainframes would read it as 1900. …