Policy Analysis for the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia: A Bayesian Network Model Approach
Olli Varis, Marko Keskinen · International Journal of Water Resources Development · 2006
The starting point of the policy analysis of the Tonle Sap Area in Cambodia was the Mekong Agreement of 1995. It specifies three development goals for the Mekong Basin: economic growth, poverty reduction and environmental sustainability. The possibilities to find combinations of sector policies for achieving these often conflicting goals were analysed systematically using a probabilistic, Bayesian network model. Four policy scenarios were constructed, one promoting each of the three development goals separately and one integrated, compromise scenario. The results indicate that a compromise policy is possible, being radically more balanced and acceptable than any of the policies that target only one of the three goals at a time.