Management Prediction - Can Software Science Help?
Maurice H. Halstead · 2005
Nearly a generation ago, I was involved in sizing and scheduling a Navy programming project. Because it was estimated to be "half-again" as complicated as the one we had just done, it was predicted that it would require 75 man-years. When the system went to sea on time and on budget, those of us who had participated in the scheduling thought that we had demonstrated scheduling ability. None of us realized that we might instead have only demonstrated that a tossed coin can come up heads five times in a row.