Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Support Vector Machine with Forecasting Error Estimation
Guorui Ji, Pu Han, Yongjie Zhai · 2007
An approach of a mean hourly wind speed forecasting in wind farm is proposed in this paper. It applies support vector regression as well as forecasting error estimation. Firstly, support vector regression is applied to the mean hourly wind speed forecasting. Secondly, a support vector classifier is trained to estimate the forecasting error. Finally, the forecasting results can tailor themselves to the estimated forecasting error, and thus improve the forecasting precision. To test the approach, three-year data from a wind farm is given as a support vector regression process, and a support vector classifier is trained in addition to estimate the forecasting error. Experimental results show that the proposed approach can achieve higher quality of mean hourly wind speed forecasting; also it has lower mean square error compared with the traditional support vector regression forecasting.