Causal Network Models in Expert Systems
Enrique Castillo, Ángel Cobo, José Manuel Gutiérrez, Andrés Iglesias, H. Sagástegui · Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering · 1994
Abstract: The paper describes causal network models, giving a detailed discussion of their basic assumptions and their associated algorithms for marginalization and updating. Conditional probability tables are shown to be the basis for the aggregation formulas of if-then rules allowing for deriving the uncertainty of conclusions from that of premises. Examples of a pressure tank and a power system are used for illustrating the concepts and all steps of explained algorithms.