Modelling and control of multi-risk behaviours using probabilistic discrete event systems
Feng Lin, Xinguang Chen, Wen Chen · International Journal of Automation and Control · 2014
In this paper, we introduce a new approach to model multiple social and health risk behaviours using probabilistic discrete event systems (PDES) for control and prevention. We develop a method to model the transition of individual risk behaviour as a PDES process. The parameters of the PDES model can be obtained from either longitudinal survey data or cross-sectional survey data. We then use parallel composition to combine the models for individual behaviours to establish PDES model for multi-risk behaviour. With the established PDES models, Mason’s gain formula developed in engineering can be applied to investigate the impacts of control and prevention on multi-risk behaviours and to evaluate the effectiveness of control and prevention strategies.