Measuring Validity of Reasoning Process for Transportation Planning Using Bayesian Inference and Dempster-Shafer Theory
Nopadon Kronprasert, Shinya Kikuchi · 2011
When evaluating the validity of the reasoning process of a transportation plan, a reasoning map facilitates discourse. If the truth values are attached to the premise and each link of the map, the overall truth of the reasoning process can be measured. The map is useful to examine the sensitivity of the truth with respect to the changes in knowledge and opinions. In calculating the truth, Bayesian inference measures it in probability measure. Demspter-Shafer (D-S) theory measures it in Belief and Plausibility. This paper examines the differences between these two methods using an example that deals with selection of the mode of public transportation in a large commercial complex.