The Philosophy and Mathematics of Bayes' Equation

Gary L. Crellin · IEEE Transactions on Reliability · 1972

The rudiments of Bayesian philosophy are introduced, and the mathematics of its application are surveyed; there is no uniformity of thought concerning either. The more extreme Bayesian philosophy, which allows subjective probabilities, is a means of plausible reasoning, or of making inferences, through inductive logic. Because inferences concerning reliability concepts are important in the decision process, this philosophy has a place in the reliability field. The difficulties of interpreting the probability function and of assigning prior distributions restrict the presentation of a unified philosophy. Thus, only techniques for describing prior probabilities under various circumstances can be given. Application of the Bayesian approach depends on how the reliability decision is conceptualized.

Read the paper · More papers on PaperTik