A statistical approach for prediction of projects based on simulation
Mariane Moreira de Souza, Humberto César Brandão de Oliveira, Alexandre Marcos Lins de Vasconcelos, Sandro Ronaldo Bezerra Oliveira · 2008
The definition of imprecise estimates is one of the crucial problems of software industry. In this context, this work presents an approach for prediction of stated periods of projects based on simulation, using statistical methods. The simulation is used to provide more confidence to the estimates defined by the project manager, so that they can reflect the organization's reality. Based on the estimates provided by the simulator, statistical methods are used to predict an interval, to which the end of the project, in practice, will have chances to belong to. A case study was performed in the end of the research attesting, statistically, the potential of the approach defined in this work.