Optimum probability estimation based on expectations
Norbert Fuhr, Hubert Hüther · 1988
Probability estimation is important for the application of probabilistic models as well as for any evaluation in IR. We discuss the interdependencies between parameter estimation and other properties of probabilistic models. Then we define an optimum estimate which can be applied to various typical estimation problems in IR. A method for the computation of this estimate is described which uses expectations from empirical distributions. Some experiments show the applicability of our method, whereas comparable approaches are partially based on false assumptions or yield estimates with systematic errors.