Retrieval Non‐Linear Dynamic Forecast Model Of El Nino/ La Nina Index Based on Genetic Algorithm Optimization
Ren Zhang, Mei Hong, Huizan Wang, Ke‐Feng Liu, Yi-De CHEN · Chinese Journal of Geophysics · 2008
Abstract Based on the 1958~1995 global monthly average SSTA field reanalysis data supported by NCEP/NCAR, using dynamical system retrieve idea and GA approach, the parameters of El Nino/La Nina exponential dynamical forecast model were optimized and the non‐linear dynamical model of Nino3 SSTA index was established from above SST data time series. The analytical results and forecast test show that GA which has the advantages of global optimum search and side‐by‐side calculation can externally, exactly and expediently retrieve SST index dynamical forecast model. So it can effectively forecast the Nino3 SST index and El Nino/La Nina event and afford useful investigative reference to El Nino/La Nina forecast.