Billion-Transistor Architectures
Doug Burger, James R. Goodman · Computer · 1997
ns three articles, which appear in Cybersquare. Each describes one trend that will affect future microprocessor architectures. In the second category, each article makes the case for a different billion -transistor architecture. Although these articles represent the state of the art and the authors' best guesses, the future is notoriously hard to predict in our breakneck-paced field. Technology trends are generally easier to predict than their effects, but trend estimates can be wildly inaccurate. Intel's 1989 prediction for 1996 processors underestimated performance by a factor of four. 1 Forecasting the effects of technology is even harder, as illustrated by several well-known quotes: . "Everything that can be invented has been invented." US Commissioner of Patents, 1899. . "I think there is a world market for about five computers. " Thomas J. Watson Sr., IBM founder, 1943. . "There is no reason for any individuals to have a computer in their home.