Combining incidence relation preferential and varied-weight for mid-long term load forecasting
Qiyun Cheng, Xuelian Liu · 2006
With the features of long time span, multi-factors and uncertainties, combinatorial forecasting methods are adopted mostly in mid-long term load forecasting, but how to choose the combinatorial models and their weights has remained to be an unsolved problem, which is a key point affecting the forecasting accuracy. For solving these problems, this paper incorporates the incidence preferential function with varied-weight and proposes a combinatorial method. Forecasting based on the historical electrical power and load of southern part of Guiyang, Guizhou province, China, demonstrates the validity of the proposed method. (4 pages)