Let us not put the probabilistic cart before the uncertainty bull
Guy Politzer, Jean‐François Bonnefon · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · 2009
Abstract Although we endorse the primacy of uncertainty in reasoning, we argue that a probabilistic framework cannot model the fundamental skill of proof administration. Furthermore, we are skeptical about the assumption that standard probability calculus is the appropriate formalism to represent human uncertainty. There are other models up to this task, so let us not repeat the excesses of the past.