Deciding on Manpower Needs Using Expert Opinions
Erdoǵan Günel · Journal of Information and Optimization Sciences · 1987
This paper presents a statistical method for determining optimal manpower needs by a group of experts. This method could be applied to any organization where the manpower assignments in various sections of the organization is known to be not optimal. The organization is assumed to be taking on on ambitious expansion and is interested in forcasting future manpower needs. If the distribution of manpower in the present system is not optimal then any forecast made for the new units by using the present system will also carry over the undesirable characteristics of the present system. To remedy this situation a group of experts could study the present system and decide on the optimal manpower needs, then the forecast for the future units could be based on the subjective manpower data provided by the group of experts.