Toward a Statistical Theory of Reasoning
Jonathan St. B. T. Evans · Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology · 1977
It is argued that the observed variability of responding in reasoning tasks might usefully be described by mathematical models based on stochastic processes. The data of a number of experiments employing Wason's selection task are reanalysed and it is shown that selection probabilities of individual cards are statistically independent. This is consistent with a class of simple stochastic models and renders conventional “insight” explanations of the data unparsi-monious. A provisional stochastic model is formulated and subjected to a limited parametric test with reasonably satisfactory results. Some general directions for future research along these lines are suggested.