Garvey: A Family of Joint Probability Models for Cost and Schedule Uncertainties
Paul R. Garvey · The Journal of Cost Analysis · 1995
This paper discusses a family of analytical models from which the joint probability of total program cost and schedule can be calculated, analyzed, and presented to decision-makers. Specifically, the classical bivariate normal and two lesser known joint distributions, the normal-lognormal and the bivariate lognormal distributions are discussed. Experiences from Monte Carlo simulations suggest that this family of bivariate distributions are candidate models for computing joint and conditional cost and schedule probabilities. In particular, the discussion on the normal-lognormal distribution as a joint cost-schedule probability model extends research on the applicability of the bivariate lognormal presented last year.