The flat maximum effect and linear scoring models for prediction
A. D. Lovie, Patricia Lovie · Journal of Forecasting · 1986
Abstract Our paper challenges the conventional wisdom that the flat maximum inflicts the ‘curse of insensitivity’ on the modelling of judgement and decision processes. In particular, we argue that this widely demonstrated failure on the part of conventional statistical methods to differentiate between competing models has a useful role to play in the development of accessible and economical applied systems, since it allows a low cost choice between systems which vary in their cognitive demands on the user and in their ease of development and implementation. To illustrate our thesis, we take two recent applications of linear scoring models used for credit scoring and for the prediction of sudden infant death. The paper discusses the nature and determinants of the flat maximum as well as its role in applied cognition. Other sections mention certain unanswered questions about the development of linear scoring models and briefly describe competing formulations for prediction.