A Better Estimate of the Number of Valid Signatures on a Petition
Mary M. Whiteside, Mark E. Eakin · The American Statistician · 2008
The 2006 Texas gubernatorial race with independent candidates Kinky Friedman and Carole Keeton Strayhorn, the 2004 attempts of Ralph Nader to gain ballot access as an independent candidate for President of the United States, and the recall of California Governor Gray Davis in 2003 are among many examples that illustrate the importance of validating signatures on a petition. Signatures may be invalid for several reasons, including not a registered voter and replication. The statistical problem is interesting because replicated signatures must be estimated differently than other invalid signatures. This article presents a new nonlinear estimator that is unbiased with smaller standard error in cases considered and suggests an innovation to current practice: first estimate the number of replicated signatures, then the number of valid signatures.