Three Gorges Reservoir Area Water Traffic Accident of Hazard – Formative Mechanism Based on Bayesian Network Model
Yao-wu Xu, Qing Liu, Xiao-zheng Feng · 2011
The research of three reservoir water gorges as traffic accident mechanisms has important practical significance for effectively preventing water traffic accidents, establishing the water transportation safety pre-warning mechanism and countermeasure library. This thesis analyzed the hazard-formative factors from the four aspects of man, ship, environment and management, based on the three reservoir water gorges transportation element and accident characteristics. Based on the Bayesian network model, this thesis reveals the interaction of hazard-formative factors and discusses the consequence that may be caused by the inherent law of hazard-formative factors. Through analyzing the process of uncertainty to certainty, it studies the accident causing mechanism, and does some empirical studies, providing the reference for the subsequent research.