Risk Analysis of Highway Traffic Forecasts
Li Luo · 2012
The volume of traffic flow is one of the core elements in evaluating the profit of a highway construction project, and the forecast of expressway traffic will determine the construction scale and the arrangement of construction sequences. This is the fundamental basis of carrying on economic evaluation and financial evaluation. By risk analysis, this paper has analyzed uncertain factors of social economy, population, and competitive mode of transportation, and also expounds the features of the risk arising. After the probability distribution of the risk factors and numerical calculation method of loss is explored, a traffic forecast model based on risk analysis is established. Finally the forecasting traffic is simulated with the Monte Carlo method; the forecast curve is obtained which then can calculate the probability of the traffic to occur.