An Early Warning System of Pork Price in China Based on Decision Tree
Ding Linlin, Jun Meng, Yang Zhen-hua · 2010
Pig industry plays a very important role in adjusting agricultural structure, promoting the optimization of the agricultural resources allocation, improving the people's livelihood and increasing farmers' income. But in recent years, price of pig fluctuates violently. As a result, participants within the pig industry have frequently found themselves facing increased variable and more price risk. Sharp price fluctuation negatively affected the pig industry developed steadily. So it is essential to take pork price risk forewarning to provide decision aids to avoid such market risk. The early warning, which is usually built on the base of forecast, is the premise of remove-warning. In this paper, a new pork price warning way-decision tree warning which could warn all kinds of conditions directly was developed. We firstly set up a pork price early warning index system by analyzing pork market of china in nearly over 10 years, based on empirical analysis and systematic analysis. Then, decision tree was used to build the pork price early warning model. And we made the model checking by comparing predictive-and-actual results of the recent 17 years. At last we forecasted future pork price risk and discussed on the probability of developing and promoting the pork price early warning system based on decision tree in China.