Adaptive Methods in Macroeconomic Forecasting
Christian Haefke, Martin Natter, TARUN SONI, Heinrich Otruba · Intelligent systems in accounting, finance and management/Intelligent systems in accounting, finance & management · 1997
Adaptive methods are used to forecast three main Austrian economic indicators. We use a weighted recursive model as well as a neural network approach both with and without adaptive characteristics and compare our results to the forecasts of two Austrian research institutes. It appears that even models which use very limited information can outperform the two Institutes’ forcasts of the unemployment rate. For the case of most series adaptivity represents a possibility of improving the forecasts. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.