Implications of natural sampling in base-rate tasks
Gernot D. Kleiter · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · 2007
Abstract The hypothesis that structural properties and not frequencies per se improve base-rate sensitivity is supported from the perspective of natural sampling. Natural sampling uses a special frequency format that makes base-rates redundant. Unfortunately, however, it does not allow us to empirically investigate human understanding of essential properties of uncertainty – most importantly, the understanding of conditional probabilities in Bayes' Theorem.