A Nonreactive Predictor of a “Liquor by the Drink” Referendum
Michael Jay Weiner · The Journal of Social Psychology · 1975
Summary The lost letter technique (2) was used as a predictor of the outcome of the 1973 “liquor by the drink” referendum in Greensboro, North Carolina. Three hundred letters with a note, “Found by your car—thought it might be yours,” were placed under the windshield wipers of automobiles selected at random. One hundred letters were addressed to a committee favoring passage of the referendum, 100 to a committee opposed to its passage, and 100 to a neutral third party. The return rate of the letters accurately predicted the outcome of the election. It was recommended that the lost letter technique be used as a nonreactive predictor of the outcome of an election when two conditions are met: (a) when voters are reluctant to state publicly their position on an issue, and (b) when the issue has arosed strong feelings in the population.