Heuristic adjustment of long-range sales forecasts
Marvin M. Johnson, MORRIS H. SCHNEIDER · International Journal of Systems Science · 1976
The components of long-range sales forecasting are considered as an entire system. Thus, rather than dealing with the improvement of mathematical models to forecast sales, or to consider group dynamics for ‘ bottom-up ’ forecasting, attention is focused on an adjustment to the existing forecast. This enables the adjusted forecast to provide a more accurate estimate without modifying the basic procedures. In addition, this technique provides a confidence interval for the single-valued sales estimate.