Bayesian Inference in Hidden Markov Models Through the Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method
Christian P. Robert, Tobias Rydèn, D. Michael Titterington · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology) · 2000
Summary Hidden Markov models form an extension of mixture models which provides a flexible class of models exhibiting dependence and a possibly large degree of variability. We show how reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques can be used to estimate the parameters as well as the number of components of a hidden Markov model in a Bayesian framework. We employ a mixture of zero-mean normal distributions as our main example and apply this model to three sets of data from finance, meteorology and geomagnetism.