A combination strategy for tracking the serial criminal
Chuan Hua He, Yuanbiao Zhang, Jiadi Wan, Wenjing Yu · Proceedings of SPIE, the International Society for Optical Engineering/Proceedings of SPIE · 2010
We build a Geographic Profiling Model to generate the criminal's geographical profile, by combining two complementary strategies: the Spatial Distribution Strategy and the Probability Distance Strategy. In the first strategy, we designate the mean of all the known crime sites as the anchor point, and build a Standard Deviational Ellipse Model, considering the effect of landscape. In the second strategy, we take many factors such as the buffer zone and distance decay theory into consideration and calculate the probability of the offender's residence in a certain area by using the Bayesian Theorem and the Rossmo Algorithm. Then, we combine the result of two strategies and get three search areas suit different conditions of the police to track the serial criminal. Apply the model to the English serial killer Peter Sutcliffe's case, the calculation result shows that the model can effectively be used to track serial criminal.