IMPROVING PROJECT SCHEDULE ESTIMATES USING HISTORICAL DATA AND SIMULATION
P.H. Meyer, J.K. Visser · The South African Journal of Industrial Engineering · 2012
Many projects are not completed on time or within the original budget.This is caused by uncertainty in project variables as well as the occurrence of risk events.A study was done to determine ways of measuring the risk in development projects executed by a mining company in South Africa.The main objective of the study was to determine whether historical project data would provide a more accurate means of estimating the total project duration.Original estimates and actual completion times for tasks of a number of projects were analysed and compared.The results of the study indicated that a more accurate total duration for a project could be obtained by making use of historical project data.The accuracy of estimates could be improved further by building a comprehensive project schedule database within a specific industry.