Prediction Research of Death Number in Construction Accident Based on Unbiased Grey-Fuzzy-Markov Chain Method
Li Yu, Mengnan Li · 2015
Some of the inherent characteristics of the construction industry makes frequently construction safety accidents, and as well , that's caused a serious of adverse effects , by now, the effective prediction which is about the trend of death number in construction accident becomes extremely important.However, the statistics of accidents is less and volatility, single evaluation model can not improve the prediction accuracy because of their limitations, leading to the low prediction accuracy of death number.The evaluation model which is combining many kinds of evaluation models has more advantages, put the unbiased theory and the fuzzy into the traditional grey markov prediction model, establish unbiased gray-fuzzy-markov chain model.This method based on the number of deaths in construction accident in 2003-2012,forecast the number in 2013-2015,then proposes some appropriate management measures.