THE APPLICATION OF THE TIME SERIES ARMA MODEL TO THE SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECASTS
Uo B · Acta Astronomica Sinica · 1986
In this paper, the composite indexes resulted from the present observation data and characterized the solar activity level in every day are made the time series. The relevant time series ARMA model is obtained by the dynamic data system modeling. The model is used to the medium-term solar activity forecasts. The effects of the forecasts are improved. It is discussed some problems descrved attention in the application of the time series analysis to the solar activity forecasts.