Models Win Big in Forecasting El Niño
Richard A. Kerr · Science · 1998
Predictions of the most recent El Niño were widely regarded as a stunning success: Forecasters warned of torrential rain in California this winter and drought in Indonesia, and they were right. But if meteorologists had dared to rely more heavily on their computer models, those predictions could have been even better—and next time, they may be. That's because this year's El Niño, one of the strongest in a century, was a proving ground for the models, showing which types do the best job at predicting this warming of the tropical Pacific and its effects on global weather patterns. When it comes to models, forecasters learned this year, bigger is better.