Probabilistic Networks and Explanatory Coherence.
Paul R. Thagard · 1997
Causal reasoning can be understood qualitatively in terms of explanatory coherence or quantitatively in terms of probability theory. Comparison of these approaches can be done by looking at computational models, using my explanatory coherence networks and Pearl’s probabilistic ones. The explanatory coherence program ECHO can be given a probabilistic interpretation, but there are many conceptual and computational problems that make it difficult to replace coherence networks by probabilistic ones. On the other hand, ECHO provides a psychologically plausible and computationally efficient model of some kinds of probabilistic causal reasoning. Hence coherence theory need not give way to probability theory as the basis for epistemology and decision making.