A Model of Project-Based Learning to Develop Information Systems Engineers and Managers through "Collaborative Management" Approach
Yoshiaki Matsuzawa, Hajime Ohiw · InTech eBooks · 2010
Overview of natural hazards and disasters Is frequency increasing?Is frequency of extreme weather events increasing?By analyzing data from 1980 to 2010, Munich Re (2010) concluded that there was a gradual increase in hydro-meteorological www.intechopen.comClimate Change -Research and Technology for Adaptation and Mitigation 326 extreme events worldwide.Many of the recent extreme events have left behind trails of devastations.Particularly two hydro-meteorological events that occurred in 2010 deserve discussion.Pakistan and Russia experienced flood and wildfire of disproportionate nature in 2010.About 1800 people lost their lives and six millions were made by the floods in Pakistan.The devastating floods started in the north-west of the country in the basins Swat and Kabul Rivers and gradually traveled to the south through the Indus River.Most of the gauging stations displayed record breaking water levels since the continuous measurement began in 1947.The country incurred an economic loss of US$ 9.5 billion (Munich Re, 2010; ADB, 2011).Russia witnessed doubling of the number of wildfires and the area affected from 1985 to 2004.Two major factors-extreme dryness and heat contributed to the outbreak of fires in the 2010 summer.In July, the observed rainfall in Moscow was just 12 mm or 13% of the normal.The July and August temperatures were the highest in the recorded history of 130 years.The flames were additionally fanned by strong winds (Munich Re, 2010).The fires killed 130 people directly.However, indirectly an estimated 56,000 people died due to an increase in the number and intensity of heart attacks, strokes, asthma attacks and bouts of coughing, as well as skin and eye disorders.Economic and insured losses were $3.6 billion and $20 million, respectively from the wildfire events (Munich Re, 2010).Although globally extreme hydro-meteorological events are on the rise, but there are regional variations in of their categories.In the north Atlantic region, no increasing trend was found in hurricane frequency (BAMS, 2000).Singh et al. (2000) studied changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones developing over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal utilizing 122 years (1877-1998) of data.They revealed significant increasing trends in the cyclone frequency over the Bay of Bengal during November and May which are main cyclone months.Analysis of long-term flood data in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins in India, Bangladesh and Nepal did not show any general increasing or decreasing trend (Mirza et al., 2001).The North-Atlantic hurricanes and typhoons have become stronger and longer-lasting since 1970s (Emanuel, 2005).Since 1949, the annual average storm peak wind speed summed over the North Atlantic and eastern and western North Pacific increased by 50%.The duration of storms also increased roughly by 60%.Both duration and peak intensity of trends contribute to the overall increase in net power dissipation.In a recent paper, Pielke Jr. et al. (2005) found no precise causation for this trend.Analyses conducted by Landsea et al. (1999) and Chan and Liu (2004) could not identify any secular trend in tropical cyclone intensity in both Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively.Lal (2001) detected increased intensity of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal region. Are damages on the rise?Globally economic damage from extreme natural events is on the rise (Figure 1).Munich Re (2010) estimated overall economic loss of about $150 billion in the year 2010 of which extreme weather hazards accounted for more than two-thirds of it.Previously, Munich Re (2004) estimated that economic losses increased by seven folds in the period 1994-2004 compared to that of 1960-1969.The main reason behind huge economic losses is economic development in the areas under risks of natural extreme events.The human population has increased (more than doubled) since 1960s, and that these increase are especially intense in the developing countries.However, in the same period, insured losses were increased by 15 folds.This is due to the expansion of insurance business, coverage and higher rate of claims.www.intechopen.